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liquidity is double edged sword, there need to be solid reason for the recent buyers to sell lower, unless those buyers are also margin accounts. then never ending margincalls until at least until QR solidify the fundamental status, or worst case the otherwise
So many UMA on PLCs in recent days ie. PTrans, MMAG, NexG, PJBumi. Looks like more on other PLCs with volatile (plunging) share prices when not fundamentally supported by valuations (PE, EPS, DY, NTA etc.)
actually if it is actually purely margin calls problem on these counters, then it is actually good chance to capture the ones with actual good fundamental, which in this case ptrans imo. those other dont seem to have good fundamental, but their shares prices also plunging somehow convinces me that margin calls can actually cause share prices to drasticly drops without any other valid reasons. which convinced me to reenter ptrans for another round
When most other stocks with 0% or minimal dividend yields, meagre profit and exceptionally high PE but market capitalisations in billions, their fundamentals cannot possibly be good. Highly speculative based on “irrational exuberance” trading.
avoid ptrans if you dont have it, daniel. if you have it, you should at least read the qr/ar and you will see some risks in there. just as you mentioned yesterday high pe high market cap, hence, its cleaning up time.
This is a rubbish company. Fixed asset RM1.3b but annual revenue only RM200m.
This is like I buy Myvi RM50k to do grab. But my grab gross income only RM8k or RM700 per month.
Maybe their fixed asset is inflated or not real.
I was wondering what causes the oversupply situation to the extend of triggering margin calls. The boss has been selling for some time and began selling aggressively over the last 2 months. Flipped through 2024 annual report and few risks: (1) ~70% of the top30 shareholdings are pledged shares (2) 95mil of the 180mil annual revenue came from 4 major customers and 3 major customers owed 75% of the total trade receivables
(3) high debt as Daniel mentioned and dividend funded by debt / sukuk (4) inflated pbt and cash flow due to high capitalization of finance costs. These are the few risks that should be taken into consideration; earnings quality risk, financing risk, capitalization risk. I am not familiar with ptrans but saw these from the 2024 annual report. Not sure whether it's the same rolling in the deep style for previous years.
Excellent analytical review, Cheng. Similar situation in numerous PLCs at present. Thorough review of Annual Report & Quarterly Reporting on all the financial ratios can give indicative “red flags” especially on ballooning level of borrowings and weakening Balance Sheet.
financing to build more terminals, not right? no pp no right issue, so financing is the only way, many other high financing company can support high valuation. i dont think financing is the true cause behind the LD because new terminal have not even operating to proves whether the financing is a good or bad decision
must by simply margin calls or something else behind the fundamental, not just high financing. high financing can be future risks if new terminals dont generate income as expected but certainly not current worry that causes the directors to sell their shares especially considering that financing is thier own decision anyway
what i am saying is that not that financing has no risk to the company especially in long term. but that dont justifiy drastically throw away the share prices. fundamental might turn worse due to the financing problem, for example, earning cannot cover up future finance cost. if that the case, this can be reflected in the share price by declining accordingly in the future depends how worse the situation can be.
to be honest, the true concern I have with this company now is whether their previous earning ability is genuine, no fake accouting behind. which might be the true reason of the LD if proven otherwise. other than that, not much as nothing can justify even if there is one time impairment loss for example in the next qr
only auditors and BODs will be able to verify that, steve. this is because they have access to the source of revenue/invoices which public will not have. the most retailers can do is to take note of what's visible from the financial reports - the financing risk, earnings quality risk and capitalization risk.
not possible to verify that its fishy bcos of no visibility to the source of revenue/invoices, cheik kooi tan. What is visible - ptrans is "cash hungry" by means of debt/sukuk financing at the back of earnings quality and capitalization risks. Given the visible risks, it makes sense for Mr. Market to price it in.