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Harta from behavioural finance, market psychology, and narrative economics perspective.
1. Markets Are Not Fully Rational and Not Fully Efficient
Traditional finance assumes:
a. Investors are rational
b. Markets are efficient (prices reflect all information)
But decades of evidence show the opposite:
a. Investors exhibit biases
b. Prices often deviate from fundamental value
c. Overreaction, underreaction, bubbles, and crashes occur regularly
This supports the idea that markets are not purely logical.
2. Markets Are Psychology-Driven
Behavioral finance identifies many psychological forces that move prices:
Common investor biases
a. Fear & Greed : emotional trading drives excess volatility
b. Herding : investors follow crowds rather than information
c. Overconfidence : investors overestimate their knowledge
d. Loss aversion : fear of loss leads to irrational selling
e. Confirmation bias : investors seek information that fits their narrative
Because of these biases, price movements often diverge from fundamentals.
3. “Animal Spirits” (Keynes)
John Maynard Keynes coined this term to describe:
a. waves of collective optimism
b. waves of panic and pessimism
These emotional forces often overpower data.
4. Narrative Economics (Robert Shiller – Nobel Laureate)
Shiller’s core idea:
Popular stories, memes, and narratives spread socially and move markets more than fundamentals.
Examples:
“AI will change everything” : AI stocks surge
“Recession is coming” : markets sell off, even without evidence
“Glove stocks to the moon” : 2020 glove mania
“Crypto revolution” → Bitcoin booms and busts
Narratives act like viruses, they spread and move prices.
5. Analysts, Buyers, Sellers Often Create or Amplify Narratives
This is real and well documented.
Analysts, funds, and even retail influencers sometimes:
a. emphasise certain data
b. downplay negative info
c. craft compelling stories to justify a stock move
Not always malicious, often subconscious.
But narratives do influence:
a. market sentiment
b. valuation multiples
c. trading volume
d. short-term price direction
e. Markets react to stories just as much as numbers.
Markets are not purely rational, not perfectly efficient, and heavily driven by psychology, narratives, and collective emotion.
In summary, fundamentals matter in the long run,but in the short-to-medium term, stories, sentiment, and “animal spirits” dominate like what we see in the chat forum now. Cheers happy investing.
Growth, Not Decline:
The global nitrile gloves market is projected to grow from USD 34 billion in 2025 to USD 67.8 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 8%. This growth is driven by increased demand for personal protective equipment (PPE) in healthcare, food processing, manufacturing, and other sectors. The market is not shrinking, but expanding, with new applications and stricter safety regulations fueling demand.
Malaysia’s Position:
Malaysia remains a global leader in nitrile glove manufacturing, with companies like Hartalega, Top Glove, and Kossan among the top players. The Malaysian nitrile gloves market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.3% from 2025 to 2031, more than doubling in size over this period.
Industry Trends:
a. Nitrile gloves are replacing latex and vinyl gloves due to better chemical resistance and hypoallergenic properties.
b. Demand is rising in healthcare, food processing, laboratories, and industrial sectors.
c. There is a shift toward sustainable and biodegradable glove variants, reflecting environmental concerns and regulatory changes.
2. Challenges and Competitive Pressures
A. Short-Term Headwinds:
The industry faces challenges such as:
I) Overcapacity and Low Utilization: After the pandemic-driven boom, many factories are running below 50% utilization due to oversupply.
II) Price Competition: Chinese manufacturers are aggressively pricing gloves, making it difficult for Malaysian producers to maintain margins.
III) Rising Raw Material Costs: Prices for nitrile butadiene and natural latex have increased, squeezing margins for glove makers.
Not a Sunset Industry:
Despite these challenges, the industry is not in structural decline. Instead, it is experiencing a cyclical downturn after an extraordinary pandemic-driven surge. The long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing demand for hygiene and safety products worldwide.
3. Innovation and Sustainability
1) Technological Advancements:
The industry is investing in automation, new glove technologies (e.g., thinner, more durable, eco-friendly gloves), and sustainable manufacturing practices to remain competitive and address environmental concerns.
2). ESG Leadership:
Companies like Hartalega are setting new benchmarks in ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) practices, including carbon footprint transparency and responsible production.
Summary Table: Nitril Glove Industry Status
A. Market Size: Growing globally and in Malaysia
B. Demand Drivers: Healthcare, food, industrial, hygiene, safety regulations
C. Short-Term Challenges: Overcapacity, price competition, margin squeeze
D. Innovation: Automation, eco-friendly products, ESG focus
E. Long-Term Outlook: Positive; not a sunset industry
Conclusion
Nitrile glove manufacturing is not a sunset industry. While the sector faces short-term headwinds due to post-pandemic normalization and competition, the long-term fundamentals remain strong, with ongoing global demand, innovation, and a shift toward sustainable practices. Companies that adapt to these trends and manage costs effectively are likely to remain competitive and profitable.